Publication: Forecasting the volume production of milkfish in La Union using arima model
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Date
2023-05
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Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - South La Union Campus
Abstract
This study dealt with forecasting the volume production of milkfish ill La Union
using ARIMA model. The data used are quarterly volume production of milkfish from
2002-2022. The data is gathered from the official website of Philippine Statistics
Authority.
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to
forecast the volume production of milkfish in La Union from Quarter 1 to Quarter 4 of
year 2022. Statistical errors such as Akaike Information Criterion (AlC), Bayesian
Information Criterion (BIC), Mean Absolute Errors (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage
Errors (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) were computed and compared to
choose the most suitable forecasting model. A comparison of the results of each model
and corresponding statistical errors reveals that the model ARIMA (0,0,0) x (0,1,0)4, is
the most suitable model to forecast the volume production of milkfish in La Union from
quarter 1 to quarter 4 of year 2022.
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Citation
Ollero, M. V., Clariz, R. S., Sotelo, R. L., & Llobrera, M. T. (2023) Forecasting the volume production of milkfish in La Union using arima model [Unpublished Undergraduate thesis]. Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - South La Union Campus, Agoo, La Union.