Publication: Markov-based probabilities of rainfall occurence at DMMMSU, Bacnotan, La Union
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Date
2009-03
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Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - North La Union Campus
Abstract
This study was conducted to determine the probabilities of rainfall at Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University (DMMMSU), Bacnotan, La Union using 0.25 mm and 5.00 mm threshold values of rainfall. Specifically, it aimed to: (1) determine the initial and conditional probabilities of rainfall throughout the year; (2) determine the dry months and wet months at DMMMSU, Bacnotan, La Union; and (3) evolve matrix of school activities and operations and rainfall probabilities as predictive dimensions in the next five years. This was done from October 2008 up to January 2009 at DMMMSU, Bacnotan, La Union.Two types of probabilities were considered in the study, the initial and conditional probabilities. The initial probabilities were computed without reference to the previous rainfall history. The conditional probabilities, on the other hand, were computed on the basis whether rain occurred or did not occur on the previous day.Results of the study showed that probabilities of having dry days are greater than probabilities of wet days throughout the year for two rainfall threshold values. The use of 0.25 mm showed January as the driest month while the months of January and February for 5.00 mm threshold value. August was found to be the wettest month for both threshold values.The use and interpretation of the derived Markovian probabilities of dry and wet days were considered as guides in planning weather-sensitive activities.
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Amadeo, V. F. (2009). Markov-based probabilities of rainfall occurence at DMMMSU, Bacnotan, La Union. [Unpublished Undergraduate Thesis]. Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - North La Union Campus, Sapilang, Bacnotan, La Union. Lakasa ti Sirib, DMMMSU Institutional Repository.