Publication: Forecasting dengue incidence in La Union using arima model
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Date
2023-05
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Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - South La Union Campus
Abstract
Dengue is a disease that occurs predominantly on subtropical countries and has
symptoms that include fever, rash, nausea, aches, pain, and also the most rapidly spreading
disease. There has been a 30-fold increase in global incidence of dengue over the past 50
years, due to climate change. Since no vaccine exists with countries with high dengue
incidence having poor public health infrastructure, predicting the occurrence of dengue is
crucial. La Union has been hit with dengue outbreaks on the month of January to June.
Forecasting future dengue incidence in La Union is necessary to assist with design public
health measures to prevent and control the diseases. Thus, to investigate occurrence of
another outbreak, forecasting dengue incidence is needed.
The study was conducted to determine the trend and forecast the dengue incidence in
La Union. Data on the monthly reported dengue cases that were obtained from the
Department of Health Regional Office I were used in this study. The Univariate Box
Jenkins (UBJ) method was employed to construct possible Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) models that were used to forecast future dengue incidence in La
Union. Four candidate models were constructed: ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA
(3,0,1), and ARIMA (3, 0, 3). Indicators for each model were compared, along with
comparing the forecast values produced by each model to its corresponding actual value
to determine the model that best fits the data and can be used to effectively forecast future
values for dengue incidence in La Union.
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Citation
Doculan, L., Fontanos, K. A. P., Nerona, R. J. B., & Ungria, J. M. S. (2023) Forecasting dengue incidence in La Union using arima model [Unpublished Undergraduate thesis]. Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - South La Union Campus, Agoo, La Union.