Browsing by Author "Doculan, Lovely"

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    Forecasting dengue incidence in La Union using arima model
    (Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - South La Union Campus, 2023-05) Doculan, Lovely; Fontanos, Kaye Angelie P.; Nerona, Rain Jel B.; Ungria, Jezza Myca S.
    Dengue is a disease that occurs predominantly on subtropical countries and has symptoms that include fever, rash, nausea, aches, pain, and also the most rapidly spreading disease. There has been a 30-fold increase in global incidence of dengue over the past 50 years, due to climate change. Since no vaccine exists with countries with high dengue incidence having poor public health infrastructure, predicting the occurrence of dengue is crucial. La Union has been hit with dengue outbreaks on the month of January to June. Forecasting future dengue incidence in La Union is necessary to assist with design public health measures to prevent and control the diseases. Thus, to investigate occurrence of another outbreak, forecasting dengue incidence is needed. The study was conducted to determine the trend and forecast the dengue incidence in La Union. Data on the monthly reported dengue cases that were obtained from the Department of Health Regional Office I were used in this study. The Univariate Box Jenkins (UBJ) method was employed to construct possible Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models that were used to forecast future dengue incidence in La Union. Four candidate models were constructed: ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA (3,0,1), and ARIMA (3, 0, 3). Indicators for each model were compared, along with comparing the forecast values produced by each model to its corresponding actual value to determine the model that best fits the data and can be used to effectively forecast future values for dengue incidence in La Union.