LAKASABrowsing by Author "Ollero, Michael V."

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Forecasting the volume production of milkfish in La Union using arima model
(Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University - South La Union Campus, 2023-05) Ollero, Michael V.; Clariz, Reynaldo S.; Sotelo, Raffy L.; Llobrera Marife T.
This study dealt with forecasting the volume production of milkfish ill La Union using ARIMA model. The data used are quarterly volume production of milkfish from 2002-2022. The data is gathered from the official website of Philippine Statistics Authority. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to forecast the volume production of milkfish in La Union from Quarter 1 to Quarter 4 of year 2022. Statistical errors such as Akaike Information Criterion (AlC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Mean Absolute Errors (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) were computed and compared to choose the most suitable forecasting model. A comparison of the results of each model and corresponding statistical errors reveals that the model ARIMA (0,0,0) x (0,1,0)4, is the most suitable model to forecast the volume production of milkfish in La Union from quarter 1 to quarter 4 of year 2022.